Riding Financial Waves

Long Time No See

2008-07-18T23:39:00.005+08:00

It has been a long time. Well been busy, with work, with trading....but I know not many people read my blog as I have not "broadcast" it yet. But still, I would like to write anyway, as I want to record my findings.

Attached below is the Four System Indicators.

First Indicator, when the sweet spot gives the signal;

Second Indicator, when the non lag change the color (meaning trend is reversing);

Third Indicator, when the MA line also changing the color;

Fourth and final Indicator; also confirmation, when the two MAs crossed.

Then, you can place your order.

This is one way to make an enter and exit in trading. It depends on your patience level and risks level. Any system can be use, the more indicator you use, the better, however, it can also confuse you. The best is always the simple and easy to use and understand.

Good luck and trade well!

p/s Previous two three months ago, I got 2 job offers. Being a trusting person and assuming all people are sincere and trustworthy - well, they are Company Directors, how can I NOT trust them! - I have been "scammed" and "cheated" by them. No wonder they did not give Employment Letter when they offered the job. The job titles are 1. Finance Manager 2. Chief Financial Officer. Moral of the story, do not believe in verbal agreement, in today world, words to most, mean nothing to them, even though they "look" religious, professional or relative.

Bull is running amok !

2008-05-29T00:54:00.005+08:00

Cool, time for bull after the Memorial holidays. Click the chart to know more. I am too sleepy and time to hit the sack.

Trade well !

Guppy Friday - Observation

2008-05-24T23:41:00.001+08:00

Can you hear the bear ROAR ?

2008-05-09T18:50:00.002+08:00

Bull totally no longer in the picture ! The bear has the control and maybe until next week or so.

-Click to Enhance -

Crazy Wednesday !

2008-05-08T00:37:00.002+08:00

Negative negative negative news all day..............and the bear roar!

Enough said...

-Ve economic data & Trend....

2008-05-07T16:53:00.003+08:00

It seems the -ve economic datas slowed down the journey to the northern region. However, did not break 205.50. The price is actually below the 23.6 fibo, and IMO, the bottom is almost near, before making a 'U' turn. If tonight the US economic datas also -ve , then that should be an interesting senario.

Till then....trade well.

p/s be careful with short, as it is against the trend.

Bull Confirmation (Update 1)

2008-05-07T00:59:00.004+08:00

Looking at the chart now, the bull is confirmed. However, I am a bit concern on the high crude oil price. Nevertheless, thru experience and observation, if the price is over-bought or over-sold, unless the news is huge and unexpected - like Bear Stern case or unexpectedly emergency rate cuts - the price will follow the trend. Lets say, if the news is +ve and the trend is up, it will surely accelerate the price up. But if the news is -ve and the trend is up, the price will move a little bit down or a lot (eg. rate cuts) for a correction, but after the price is stable, the price will go again with the trend, under "normal" circumstances.

The correction time could takes, 30 minutes - 1 hour, depending on how "bad" or "good" is the news. If more than 1 hour, then, it could re-adjusted the trend totally and the "geographical" averages lines changed.

Hhhhmmm..........trading is like a never ending story. You learned something today....then next day, new situation knocking the door. For that reason, I am writing my thoughts/experience here, so I can flipped back and learned from history. Any similar case, can be referred back to the journal.

At the time of writing, the bear is making an entrance. Might be just a little correction. The geographical structure still intact, though. Will update later.

Till then trade well.

Update:
The price was sideways, however did not pass under the magnet line. Morning approx at 7.00am, it started to move further north. Alhamdullilah, the strategy works. I will let the profit runs as the exit signal is not in sight yet. It has a good resistance at 206.7X area. IMO, once the price penetrate 206.95 / 207.00 , then it can go further north. It seems like the "bull market" is waiting for a confirmation i.e economic data to release or a speech, before making a decision either for a correction or to continue with the trend. As for the technical analysis, the signals still show a very strong bull. 7.49AM

Time for Bull to test strength....?

2008-05-06T23:17:00.005+08:00

-Click to Enhance-

Though DJ is in red, yet not able to push the bear further down. Time for his good buddy to take over the show. Might re-test 209.XX region, penetrate that, 215.XX is imminent. However, if the bull can't bring the price to that level, then the bear will take it further down, maybe 203-201 region. Will see.

Trade well and follow the trend.

6 May 2008

2008-05-06T13:11:00.003+08:00

As mentioned last Sunday, the trend is moving south. Monday and Tuesday are slow days as Japan and England are having a holiday. Tomorrow price is expected to move in a "normal pace". Nevertheless, the price still moves towards the expected region, slowly, yet surely. Last night, the economic data was positive, yet, due to the "geographical" change, the news was not strong enough to "reshape" or "re-adjust" the trend. Tonight, 1 bad news is enough to accelerate the move to the southern region, and good news will slow down the journey down.

Interesting week ahead !

2008-05-04T16:59:00.001+08:00

Click to Enhance

Speak of the devil !

2008-05-01T09:39:00.005+08:00

Yesterday, though earnings were bad, however, unexpectedly economic datas were positive - slightly positive, IMO.

But after the Feds cuts .25, the price started to go wild and then go south slowly, and Gbp follows USD all the way.

Regarding the position that I took yesterday, I managed to close at 204.05, in green.

Today is 1st of May (Happy Birthday Brother!), labour day and the Euro session close, however, US session is not.

At the moment, the price is slowly sliding down, but in the magnet line region, in my opinon, if it is able to break 205.50, then it can go further down. If not, the price has to go above 207.75 to push further up. Naturally, the price has to retrace and the 203.xx region is a strong support, penetrate that, 201.xx is imminent.

Well, that is all for today........kinda tired after the wild roller-coaster. Till then..trade well.

Position taken......

2008-04-30T11:17:00.004+08:00

Just took a plunge at 204.78 ............a short position. The reason, 1. H4 indicating bias to bear. 2. Price seems to be "dancing" a bit below the magnet line. 3. the range 0.70-0.90 for the last 3 hours of trading. 4. Stoch almost at the max region and "looks" sliding down sloooowy. 4. RSI -flat with the blue line pointing down.

The room to go up is there, but with so much news/economic data going to be released today which in my opinion (NOT an advise, please refer to Disclaimer) going to be "not so encouraging" due to high gas price=high transportation costs = high operating cost = high comsumer price = less profit, less sales = less production, high layoff = high unemployment rate, which could "influence and put some impact" to the economic data and companies earnings.

Whatever the outcome, let see how the day/night will goes. Coffee ready.........and watch "the live show".

Trade at your own risk and trade well. Later.......

30th April 2008 - Tokyo Session

2008-04-30T07:49:00.004+08:00

-Click to Enhance-

Traders to take note: The movement will be tricky today. D1 north -a bit below magnet line, H4 also a bit below magnet line,H1..........way down magnet line...

Conclusion: The bull is still there.....but I think the momentum to pull the price up is weakening. The bear is "grinning" as he knows, his time is coming. I will wait for a "good price" where I can "feel" the bull momentum is almost "dead".............and I hope he isn't faking it......or a false signal.

Till then...trade well.

29 April 2008

2008-04-29T22:34:00.002+08:00

Note for Shorting Guppy

2008-04-15T09:01:00.004+08:00

Just want to highlight here, to be careful with the short today. Indicators still signalling for down trend. But, I don't think the down-side is "deep" as there seems to be a strong support at 198.XX region. Many times the bear tried to penetrate the region, but in the end bounce to EMA62 region. True, that the high is getting lower, however, the low is not getting lower and has become a very strong support. Currently I have 1 short position which is above 199.00, and still has more room for the down. But after the price reaching approximately around 199.50 - 198.50, taking a short position has to be "well-guarded". If the price could reach 197.75 and below, then the bear has gain his strength. At the time of writing this, Guppy is getting stronger, and bouncing near the EMA62. Nevertheless, I anticipated it will go down again as the bigger frame H4 is looking bearish.......(waiting for the US Open to push it down perhaps).

Till then ...trade well and at your own risk.

My Trading Policy

2008-04-15T02:39:00.008+08:00

Checklist :-
A. Enter
1. How far the price from Sweet Spot.
2. The color of nolagdata signal and the slope.
3. The color and level of BBSQ.
4. The color , slope and level of Stoch Histogram.
5. The color of the MAs slopes.
6. Determine the support/resistance price, and from the current price/range.

B. Exit
1. "Feel" the momentum - this one is through experience and hours in front of the screen :P :)
2. Change in the slopes direction.

C.
Important websites to visit during trading session:-
1. ForexFactory - for latest discussions and checking economic data;
2. Bloomberg News - for latest news and index;
3. Bloomberg TV - US Hours only, other sessions - I prefer to hear my music :) :P , during US Session - it is a critical moment, and real time news is essentially important during the session - avery generous service by the Bloomberg, grateful indeed;
4. Yahoo Finance - for news and index.

D.
Always set target for the day. Once reaching the target, then get off the market. Greedy is not an option in trading. Must learn to be grateful and say "enough".

E.
Open max 2 positions at one time. Risking only few percentage of the capital, to minimise liquidity risk. If I have to go out, I will close my position first or I don't trade at all.

One month after Bear Sterns........14.04.08

2008-04-13T17:42:00.004+08:00

Last month, Bear Sterns moved the market to the "bear" region. Last Friday, GE gave a shocked and drove down DJ Index to -2.0%. It gave quite an impact to Guppy, to those who short, it was a good down. :) :P

For 14.4.08, the technical analysis on the chart are as follows:

TF5M - 3 Greens
TF15M - 1 Green, 2 Reds
TF1H - 3 Reds
TF4H - 3 Reds

My observation on Guppy: The price might move up a little, a approximately in the region 198.91-201.80. If the price move more than that region, then the probability for a "bull" is high.However, if the price breaks 198.05 and if goes down beyond 197.50, then the price might touch 196.00 region. I think for Tokyo session and London/Frankfurt Session, the price might still be in the up trend, plus with G7 meeting news and the concerns over the decline of the dollar, might push up Guppy a little bit and starts to gain momentum again approximately around 6.00 - 7.00pm (pre-market) and 9.30-11.30pm -US Session (GMT+8). The price will depends on the earnings news, like PHG, GWW and ETN. On top of that, tomorrow is the "one-month anniversary" for Bear Sterns & JP Morgans, and the market is interested to know the condition of Bear Stearns after the "force marriage-rescue". Other than the earnings, i predicted the economic data might add salt to the injury as March was not a good month, as bad news started to pour - Bear Sterns, unemployment, banks tighten credits, high inventories, low sales - which I think can substantially "influence" the economic data tomorrow and the rest of the week.

My Strategy on Guppy: Definitely just follow the trend. News and economic data are just the "barometer" where the direction of the trend. Entry signal from Sweet Spot, will be my first sign to enter 1st position, second the nolag signal....after 3 dots with the same trend...and finally the change of color of the slopes, at TF5M. The bigger TF1H will be my guide for the current trend. If TF5M trend and TF1H trend are not the same, I am not going to enter, until both signals go to the same direction. The advantages are (1) minimise the risk of the position going against the trend as smaller TF follows bigger TF ; (2) to be able to buy from dip or sell from top; (3) to avoid "panic attack" or worrisome - which can lead to bad decision.

Conclusion: Just follow the trend and watch the small and big TF closely. Unless you have a big account, then that is "another story".

Till then..........trade well and at your own risk.

Current Chart Set-Up , 10 April 2008

2008-04-10T23:51:00.003+08:00

Above is the current chart set-up that I have "design" for my personal trading. Not very artistic, I presumed.....but I find it very useful. Why didn't I think of it earlier? Well, I guess, that is part and parcel of a learning curve. I will explain in details, Insya Allah tomorrow or whenever I have the chance. Kind of sleepy and tired now. I got in from Tokyo session till US open.....and the price is very volatile and ranging at the moment. Plus with my tiredness, I am not going to take that kind of risk, as I am not fully alert and the possibility of my decision could be wrong is highly anticipated.

Till then.......trade well.

10 April 2008 - Interest Rate Announcement Day

2008-04-10T11:15:00.003+08:00

Trade well.........

9 April 2008

2008-04-09T12:36:00.005+08:00

Note: It looks like most indicators are showing a down trend scenerio. Most traders predicting a bearish Guppy this week and estimated that the BOE is going to cut rates, expected cut is 0.25%.

Be very careful this week, as this week roller coaster is going to be very volatile.

Till then...trade well.

Forecast : Week 31 - 4 April 2008

2008-04-01T01:46:00.002+08:00

Please Read Disclaimer

Currents Indicators

2008-03-29T12:13:00.003+08:00

I have surfed and tested many indicators. God know how many nights and days I searched for the right ones for me.

Below are the current list of indicators which I think are the good ones which are suitable to my needs :

1. Digi Filtr - simple yet awesome
2. Waddah Attar Weekly Fibo - to guide the fibo level
3. i-OneThird - simply wonderful for candlestick reversal detection
4. Breakout Panca Eagle - to guide the range and the breakout level and helps to confirm the market direction
5. 3 Level ZZ Semafor - thanks to the creator, he is a genius! All praise is due to Allah!
6. Traders Dynamix Index Visual Alerts- one word, wonderful!
7. QQE with Alerts - to guide if the market is good to enter or not

I got them from MQL4 website.

Till then............always follow the trend!

Entry Time

2008-03-20T11:38:00.001+08:00

Check out the picture below:-

Waiting for Buy Signal (Update 1)

2008-03-20T10:14:00.004+08:00

Today, I am waiting for the buy signal on the TF1H. Yesterday almost all short.

Below is the chart TF 1H / Guppy :-

-Click to Clarify-

Monday - Buy or Sell ?

2008-03-16T01:52:00.006+08:00

Based on the chart below, Monday could be another Sell day.

-Click for clarity-

Anticipating another tough week ahead.

By the way, just for information , Quote" Credit standards plunged and abuses increased as lenders made $2.8 trillion in mortgage loans from 2004 to 2006. New foreclosures on borrowers with weak or sketchy credit histories reached a five-year high in the first quarter." Unquote Source: Bloomberg

Just to highlight, this is how long $2.8 Trillion looks like $2,800,000,000,000,000,000.00 and lets say the damage is just 30% , it will look like this $840,000,000,000,000,000.00 and lets say the rescue is in $200 Billion, it will look like this $200,000,000,000,000.00.

Think I better hit the sack and rest. Have a wonderful Sunday!

Free Fall - Dollar

2008-03-15T02:31:00.005+08:00

What can I say! I am glad I am done for today, phew. Alhamdullilah, day by day, I am learning and improving. Today, dollar went south again. I was too scare to short again! Who knows an intervention took place and trapped my position. First the CPI was flat, which was good news and the price jumped. Being the trend follower, I jumped in immediately, and I think I am not going to do that anymore. I should let it come down again, and then get in. Alhamdullilah, I got out with green. Immediately after that the "monster" of the day came, nobody knows it is going to come, after all the CEO, early this week, told the world, that Bear Sterns position was good...then bam! Tonight he announced that the Company has a significant liquidity problem and if no help, could cripple their operations! JP Morgan and Fed had to "assist" Bear Sterns, and the time-frame given is 28 days.

In my opinion, it seems so coincidence that early this week the Feds announced about the USD$200 Billion and then on Friday at 9.00am (EST) Bear Sterns announced that it has significantly liquidity situation. I doubt the situation is going to be resolved in 28 days, and JP Morgan has to take the responsibility and might have to take Bear Sterns as part of its business, but is that a 'healthy' move? If the Feds could increase the "lending period" from 28 days to 120 days, then that could help a bit, as I don't think the financial housing crisis, going to make a recovery in the near future.

It does sound that I am trading equity right? No, I trade Guppy, but the correlation is very strong, whatever happens to USD affects most currencies and USD links to American economy and that is mirrored through Dow Jones.

Personally I hope dollar will climb again, as like Bush, I want a "strong dollar" too.

Intervention seen on Chart

2008-03-14T11:28:00.003+08:00

Below is the Chart that shows intervention was taken to hold the dollar from falling against yen. However, the natural force is not easy to be beaten. If this intervention fails, a "lot" is wasted.

Between natural force and human intervention, who will win ?

How long can the intervention lasts ?

The falling of dollar is the result of false wealth which was practised and created years back. The natural force is only balancing and adjusting the "false wealth". Can that be intervened ?

Well, lets see how.

As for traders, follow the trend....follow the trend.

Fed to Lend $200 Billion - Dollar Intervention Day

2008-03-11T21:59:00.010+08:00

Futures and Dow really shoot up after the news, including the Dollar, obviously.

Quote " March 11 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve plans to lend up to $200 billion of Treasury securities in exchange for debt including private mortgage-backed securities that have slumped in value as homeowners defaulted on their payments. Source: Bloomberg

Is the bottom confirmed ? Is the Fed taking significant risks ? Is the USD$200 billion enough ?

Moody's, S&P Defer Cuts on AAA Subprime, Hiding Loss (Update3)

Quote "None of the 80 AAA securities in ABX indexes that track subprime bonds meet the criteria S&P had even before it toughened ratings standards in February, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A bond sold by Deutsche Bank AG in May 2006 is AAA at both companies even though 43 percent of the underlying mortgages are delinquent.

Sticking to the rules would strip at least $120 billion in bonds of their AAA status, extending the pain of a mortgage crisis that's triggered $188 billion in writedowns for the world's largest financial firms. AAA debt fell as low as 61 cents on the dollar after record home foreclosures and a decline to AA may push the value of the debt to 26 cents, according to Credit Suisse Group.

``Downgrades of AAA and AA bonds are imminent, and they're going to be significant.''

`800-Pound Gorilla'

The bank would either have to sell the bonds at a loss or make up the difference in cash. Citigroup Inc., the largest U.S. bank, have already written down $19.9 billion of subprime mortgages and CDOs. Merrill Lynch & Co. cut its investments' value by $24.5 billion.

Bond insurers such as MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc. also have to hold more capital against insurance they write if the securities' credit quality declines.

The prospect of losses may be holding the ratings companies back, said Frank Partnoy, a University of San Diego law professor and former Morgan Stanley banker who has been writing about the impact of credit ratings companies since 1997.

``If the 800-pound gorilla moves, it's going to crush someone, so it's not going to want to move,'' Partnoy said. ``They know they will trigger a price collapse. They are understandably reluctant.'' - Unquote Source: Bloomberg.

I hope the effort is not a waste and the dollar keeps climbing up.

Is it buy today ?

2008-03-11T15:35:00.005+08:00

The picture will have to tell the story.

Trade at your own risks.

Is Ultraman weaker or is he just resting after fighting with the bull or Harry Porter's magic spell is working ? There is a speculation that the Fed is going to cut more rates, that would bring more strength to Superman, but for how long ?

As more domestic "kryptonites" are coming to weaken Superman.

Slowdown in U.S. Will Be Deeper, Recovery Weaker, Survey Shows

All in all, short is the best long-term option.

Note: Please read the Disclaimer.

Ultraman vs Superman

2008-03-11T08:57:00.003+08:00

Ultraman is getting stronger and the Superman getting weaker by minutes. And Harry Porter can't seems to use his wand for a little magic.

It is scary to see the dollar tumbles, as if seeing a giant falling to his knees. I hope Superman will get his strength again.

Once again..........short! Follow the trend....follow the trend.........

Monday - Day Range Forecast

2008-03-10T08:29:00.004+08:00

Bullish probability - 54.17%
Bearish probability - 66.67%
Day Range 207.54 - 205.05 , if there is news (major good or bad) , to add 15%-25%
Average day price 206.42

Strategy for today:-

1. Buy at 206.40
2. Sell at 206.00
3. Sell from top 207.00
4. Buy from dip 205.00

.....and wait for the pips to get trapped.

Don't over trade! Don't trade oversize! The market could go against you and you become the hunted.

Enjoy the ride!

p/s Please read the disclaimer first.

EnEx Strategy

2008-03-10T01:36:00.011+08:00

The picture below, will help me make my decision tomorrow.

The TA analysis, Insya Allah , I am going to do it early tomorrow morning. I just want to be consistent in timing my analysis as different timing could (might) affect the results of my analysis.

With the results, I can use it for PipsTrap Strategy. The strategy is to "play it safe" strategy, yet can also brings good pips

Below is the EnEx Startegy, a combination of indicators which i gathered and blended together.

As you can see the "possible next move" is indicating to sell/short. However, the possibility for the price to go further up is also possible, but not much. Maybe around 10%-15% the most unless there is a major news. Tokyo hours news normally do not shake the price much, but , anything is possible.

Quote -"The Bank of Japan will be changing leadership at a critical time for the global and Japanese economies amid fears about soaring oil prices, volatile global stock markets, a strengthening yen and declining corporate capital investment.

Analysts say they do not expect the political scuffling to directly hurt Bank of Japan policies or to derail its decision-making in the near future." Source: Yahoo! Finance

However, one possible news that I expected to shake the price down is the impact from the oil price which has gone up to USD106+ during the weekend. Plus good news almost dry out and bad news keep flowing in.

Bloomberg News

================================================================
                  Release    Period    Prior     Median
Indicator                 Date               Value    Forecast
================================================================
===============
Whlsale Inv. MOM%         3/10      Jan.      1.1%      0.5%
Trade Balance $ Blns      3/11      Jan.     -58.8     -59.6
Federal Budget $ Blns     3/12      Feb.     -120.0    -165.0
Import Prices MOM%        3/13      Feb.      1.7%      0.8%
Import Prices YOY%        3/13      Feb.     13.7%     14.6%
Retail Sales MOM%         3/13      Feb.      0.3%      0.2%
Retail ex-autos MOM%      3/13      Feb.      0.3%      0.2%
Initial Claims ,000's     3/13     9-Mar      351       355
Cont. Claims ,000's       3/13     2-Mar      2831      2835
Business Inv. MOM%        3/13      Jan.      0.6%      0.5%
CPI  MOM%                 3/14      Feb.      0.4%      0.3%
Core CPI MOM%             3/14      Feb.      0.3%      0.2%
CPI  YOY%                 3/14      Feb.      4.3%      4.3%
Core CPI YOY%             3/14      Feb.      2.5%      2.4%
U of [bn:PRSN=1] Mich Conf []. Index     3/14    March P     70.8      69.0
================================================================
============= - Source: Bloomberg News

Quote "One key issue: the value of the dollar. Crude oil is priced in dollars. So when the dollar is falling in value against other currencies, the price of crude oil usually rises. Why? Because European and Japanese importers can still buy oil for the same price in their own currencies even if the dollar price rises. Oil-exporting countries also like higher dollar-denominated oil prices when the dollar goes down so that their revenues cover the same amount of goods purchased in countries other than the United States." Source - www.washingtonpost.com

All in all , enjoy the ride ! Another roller coaster ? Surely is !

Trading Performance

2008-03-08T13:56:00.004+08:00

Trading perfomance is no longer updated in this space. However, from time to time , I will put my analysis and insights in here.

At the moment, I am heavily doing analysis and trying to understand indicators. I combined indicators in order to give good signals.

So far I have developed a "PipsTrap Strategy". At the moment, I am going to test another new strategy which I called "EnEx Strategy".

All the indicators and filters that I learned, modified and improved are from the resources that I have gathered from the systems that are being discussed in the trading forums.

I would like to appluase traders who have put their trading systems "freely" and who have the initiatives to modify and improve the systems for the good use of traders all over the world. Your generous contributions are highly appreciated.

I am not an active member of any fx forum, as I am just an observer and learner.

Till then, Have a Nice Pips Weekend!

Live Trading - Day 14

2008-03-06T08:56:00.001+08:00

Alhamdullilah, managed to gather little Green Pips for today.

Day 14, 5th March 2008

Projection Gain 3.27%

Actual Gain 0.30%

Variance -2.97%

Accumulated Projection Gain 45.98%

Accumulated Actual Gain 45.12%

May the result can be improved, Amin.

Live Trading - Day 13

2008-03-05T09:23:00.001+08:00

Alhamdullilah, managed to gather Green Pips for today.

Day 13, 4th March 2008

Projection Gain 3.38%

Actual Gain 1.17%

Variance -2.21%

Accumulated Projection Gain 42.71%

Accumulated Actual Gain 44.82%

May the result can be maintained and improved, Amin.

4 / 3 / 8

2008-03-04T09:48:00.002+08:00

For the next few hours:-

The probability for Guppy to go UT(uptrend) is 11.76%
The probability for Guppy to go DT(downtrend) is 58.82%
New range (approximately, candle's body range) 203.82 - 205.26
Indicating Lower High.
Below 203.82 , new DT confirmation, candle's body, "visit and stay (VaSt)".
Above 205.26, new UT confirmation, candle's body, "visit and stay (VaSt)".

Trading Guidelines & Procedures - Personal Use

2008-03-04T08:28:00.007+08:00

I have systematically formulated a Trading Guidelines and Procedures.

The purposes are as follows:-
1. To know the trend's direction;
2. To increase the confidence level when I hit the buy or sell or both buttons;
3. To estimate the range for at least 4-6 hours;
4. To increase the percentile of winning trades;
5. Trading blindly can be avoided;
6. Trading, yet away from the computer.

The guidelines are the indicators and filters that must be meet strictly.

I just found out that it is also useful whether I go short or long simultaneously, of course with the correct procedures.

Live Trading - Day 12

2008-03-04T08:26:00.001+08:00

Alhamdullilah, managed to gather Green Pips for today.

Day 12, 3rd March 2008

Projection Gain 3.33%

Actual Gain 6.40%

Variance +3.07%

Accumulated Projection Gain 39.33%

Accumulated Actual Gain 43.66%

May the result can be maintained and improved, Amin.

Today 3 / 3 / 8

2008-03-03T08:01:00.002+08:00

At 8.00 am the opening was 204.91, the probability for down trend is confirmed.
Took a "short" trip south at 204.80. Let see how it goes. The new TA based on the indicators are as follows:-
The probability for Guppy to go UT(uptrend) is 16.66%
The probability for Guppy to go DT(downtrend) is 85.71%
New range 204.61 - 206.72
Below 204.61 , new DT confirmation.
Above 206.72, new UT confirmation.

Guesstimation - 3 / 3 / 8

2008-03-03T03:15:00.005+08:00

Based on the TA from combined indicators, the conclusion is as follows:-
For Guppy:-
The price range for 3 march 2008 :-
206.47 - 208.56 (approximately)
Above 208.56 , confirmation for LONG
Below 206.47, confirmation for SHORT
The probability for the uptrend is 28.55%
The probability for the downtrend is 71.42%

Disclaimer:
This is just my personal analysis. The purpose is for informational, educational and entertainment only. This blog is to journalized my trades and trading strategies with the purpose to improve my trading performance. Also, for traders to exchange notes and opinions. Nothing is concrete in this blog and my strategy could change due to sudden market reactions. I could be wrong. Trade at your own risk. Past performance is not a guarantee of future profits. The best financial advisor is the one you see in the mirror.

Live Trading - Day 11 ( Update 1 )

2008-02-29T16:02:00.002+08:00

Alhamdullilah, managed to gather Green Pips for today.

Day 11, 29th February 2008

Projection Gain 3.20%

Actual Gain 5.55%

Variance +2.35%

Accumulated Projection Gain 35.99%

Accumulated Actual Gain 37.25%

May the result can be maintained and improved, Amin.

Live Trading - Day 10

2008-02-28T22:45:00.002+08:00

Alhamdullilah, managed to gather Green Pips for today.

Day 10, 28th February 2008

Projection Gain 3.31%

Actual Gain 3.09%

Variance -0.21%

Accumulated Projection Gain 32.79%

Accumulated Actual Gain 31.71%

May the result can be maintained and improved, Amin.

Live Trading - Day 9

2008-02-28T09:56:00.001+08:00

Alhamdullilah, managed to gather Green Pips for today.

Day 9, 27th February 2008

Projection Gain 3.15%

Actual Gain 3.12%

Variance -0.03%

Accumulated Projection Gain 29.49%

Accumulated Actual Gain 28.61%

May the result can be maintained and improved, Amin.

Not Trading Tonite

2008-02-26T21:21:00.003+08:00

I am taking time off the screen. Just doing some analysis and watching the market. Market is also too shaky, a mixture of good and bad news and I think it is better to be on the side for today.

Have a nice day/night.

Live Trading - Day 8

2008-02-26T09:08:00.000+08:00

Alhamdullilah, managed to gather little Green Pips for today.

Day 8, 25th February 2008

Projection Gain 3.25%

Actual Gain 0.40%

Variance -2.85%

Accumulated Projection Gain 26.34%

Accumulated Actual Gain 25.50%

May the result can be improved, Amin.

Long (Buy) or Short (Sell)

2008-02-23T21:28:00.008+08:00

Traders who do their homework are responsible traders. They should not just jump in the wagon without knowing the wagon going to do a U-turn or stop temporarily at the station or just keep on continuing with the trend. Sometimes we get trapped, especially when there are news, and then, the trend suddenly changed direction and go against us. That is the "scariest" experience for most newbies, like me. For an experienced trader, he/she will relax. But for someone like me, a newbie, panic is something natural, but bad for trading, of course. I think every traders panic, at least at their early stage. As they aged, as they gained more experience day in,day out, traders beginning to understand the ticker(s) that they trade.

Regarding homework, if you noticed in forums, during the weekend, some may forecast what's going to happen on Monday. But I hope newbies like me won't take it as grave on stone guideline. A forecast is just a forecast. Nothing concrete. Do not be disappointed if the forecast failed, the guy who wrote it probably feel bad too. Just take it lightly.

Below is the chart based on my calculations. It is not a forecast what's is going to happen on Monday. It is based on historical figures and I could be wrong. It is not a guide. It is just for informational,entertainment,educational purposes. It is NOT an investment advise and trade at your own risk.

Till then, have a great weekend.

-Click for Clarity-

Live Trading - Day 7

2008-02-23T11:46:00.003+08:00

Alhamdullilah, managed to gather little Green Pips for today.

Day 7, 22th February 2008

Projection Gain 3.36%

Actual Gain 0.92%

Variance -2.44%

Accumulated Projection Gain 23.09%

Accumulated Actual Gain 25.10%

May the result can be improved, Amin.

Matrix Trendlines

2008-02-22T13:10:00.004+08:00

If you read my blog, you might noticed that I am more a trend lines system follower. I read almost everywhere, "Follow the Trend"...."Trend is your friend" advises by the experienced traders. Definitely their advise must be based on experience and the probability that they are RIGHT is high. Experience is the best teacher in life, and nobody can deny that.

Below is the diagram that I have drawn to illustrated my trading system. It is helpful, particularly when the "sea" is not rough, meaning no news scenario. This system is not a holy grail but it can be helpful.

If you see the area is highly populated, then it a strong "war-zone" region i.e consolidation. Whether it is going to be upwards or downwards, you need to check, if the area is in a strong bull or bear region. If bull region, could be upwards. If bear region,could be downwards. Normally news suddenly "pop-up" when either one started to gain momentum.

-Click for Clarity-

Note: I am still a newbie in this "game", so it is advisable to get a professional advise on any system you read here.

Thank you for reading. May the Green be with you, Amin.

Live Trading - Day 6

2008-02-22T01:24:00.002+08:00

Alhamdullilah, managed to gather Green Pips for today.

Day 6, 21th February 2008

Projection Gain 3.18%

Actual Gain 3.33%

Variance +0.15%

Accumulated Projection Gain 19.73%

Accumulated Actual Gain 24.18%

May the result can be maintained and improved, Amin.

Trendlines ( Update 1 )

2008-02-21T02:47:00.009+08:00

Below is the chart and patterns that I watched like 15-20 min ago. Will see tomorrow if the theory fits the actual-meaning is it going to break out upwards as expected. InsyaAllah (God Willing) I will put a new chart tomorrow and see the different. Till then. Happy Trading. May the Green be with you,Amin.

Note: Another Chart below confirmed the expectation and gained 105 pips in total.

Click for Clarity (Before)

Click for Clarity (After)

Live Trading - Day 5

2008-02-20T16:43:00.002+08:00

Alhamdullilah, managed to gather Green Pips for today.

Day 5, 20th February 2008

Projection Gain 3.28%

Actual Gain 4.46%

Variance +1.18%

Accumulated Projection Gain 16.55%

Accumulated Actual Gain 20.85%

May the result can be maintained and improved, Amin.

Note: Waiting for News at 5.30pm (GMT+8) that could ( or not) affect the GJ or Guppy.

Mastering Momentum Trading - by Alan Farley

2008-02-19T23:49:00.004+08:00

Another good reading material.
Trading Style
Outside the Box

Markets must continuously digest new information. Cyclic impulses of stability and instability gather force through the pulse of this future discount mechanism. Each small event shocks the common knowledge, building a dynamic friction that dissipates through volatility-driven price movement.

In its purest form, volatility generates negative feedback as price swings randomly back and forth. However, if focused into a single direction, positive feedback awakens and generates momentum into strong price trending. Traders' recognition of these active-passive states will likely determine their ultimate success in market speculation.

Neophytes fall quickly under the spell of fast-moving markets. However, momentum is far more difficult to trade than most participants admit. When an emotional crowd ignites sharp price movement, greed clouds risk awareness. The anxious trader then chases positions just behind the big volume, where odds of a reversal quickly increase.

Obviously, the majority seek their profit through momentum. But, most ultimately fail as this wicked beast devours equity. Those who survive commit themselves to mastering the diverse skills needed to play this dangerous game.

As traders gain experience, fresh dangers block the road to success. The swing of negative feedback triggers many false alarms while real entry signals, streaming from multiple sources, remain unnoticed. In the confusion, profitable trades are missed completely or entered just as the trend dies.

Either way, bad choices consume inexperienced trading dollars and the markets tally more losers.

Trade	Momentum	Swing
State	Positive Feedback	Negative Feedback
Strategy	Reward	Risk
Basis	Demand	Supply
Chart	Trend	Range
Impulse	Action	Reaction
Purpose	Thrust	Test
Condition	Instability	Stability
Indicator	Lagging	Leading
Price Change	Directional	Flat-Line

Like magnetic fields, polar forces drive market conditions. Alternating cycles of activity and inactivity continuously fuel the dynamics of price movement. Traders must recognize current axis conditions before executing positions.

Winning
Momentum trading can be mastered. Three disciplines will break destructive habits and reprogram trading for success:

	*Abandon the adrenaline rush.* Forget the excitement. Profit is dependent on detached and disciplined execution.
	Learn the numbers. The nature of price movement must be ingrained deeply enough to allow spontaneous decision-making during the trading day.
	Cross-verify. Objective measurements must filter unconscious bias.

Studying supply and demand on a scrolling ticker or NASDAQ Market Depth display provides a solid first step for understanding the inner workings of rapid price movement. Combining this with an understanding of time-of-day tendencies strengthens awareness of profit and danger zones. And, understanding all the players proffers a needed edge on the competition.

But, the study of technical analysis uncovers greater secrets as insider deception and herd emotions are exposed. Properly applied, patterns and indicators reduce the false entries associated with failure. And, they invoke natural risk management. Technical analysis teaches traders when to painlessly exit momentum positions and move on to the next opportunity.

Action-Reaction Cycle

Prices rarely move in a straight line. As shocks destabilize a market, a counter-force emerges to restrain price back toward its stable state. After each forward impulse, a backward reaction follows. Burning the fuel of the crowd's money, markets seek equilibrium before proceeding with the next impulse.

Traders fail to consider this phenomenon when they enter their momentum trades. Simply put, both action and reaction must be considered in developing appropriate entry-exit points. This requires more complex planning than most anticipate. Successful strategies often demand execution opposite to the natural tendencies of the trader:

	Entry on counter-trend reaction and exit on accelerating thrust
	Entry on accelerating thrust and exit on subsequent reaction

Exit strategy can confuse trader logic more than entry. Effective risk management may require reversing the entry process entirely:

	Exit on further reaction when counter-trend entry fails
	Exit on accelerating impulse when thrust entry succeeds

Choosing the wrong action-reaction trigger will produce frustrating results. Every trader knows the pain of making a low-risk entry, riding a profitable trend, then losing everything on a subsequent reaction. This experience can be avoided using technical analysis to identify momentum signposts and locate natural escape routes.

First Pullback
Buying the first pullback following a breakout offers very high reward:risk. Inevitably, an impulsive crowd will be waiting to jump in on a second chance. Use support and resistance or short-term moving averages to identify your entry point.

(Day Traders: a 5-to 8-period SMA on a 5-minute bar is highly effective.)

Identifying Momentum
Well chosen technical analysis tools signal awakening momentum and track subtle changes in strength and duration. The power to identify these transforming conditions just prior to significant price movement is the key to profitable entry. All momentum study falls into one of two broad categories:

	*Trend-following indicators* gaze into the rear view mirror and average price over defined time series. They are most valuable early in a trend for identifying momentum.
	*Trend-leading oscillators* measure developing range and movement from price bar to price bar. They provide valuable information late in a trend by identifying turning points.

Effective analysis must investigate the nature of momentum change. Physics teaches that an object in motion tends to remain in motion. Profitable entry-exit will capitalize on this universal tendency. With most indicators, this requires combining snapshots of different period lengths in order to measure momentum acceleration-deceleration.

Three types of technical tools provide complete resources needed to accomplish these complex tasks:

Line Tools visually illustrate rate of change and action-reaction points:

Trendlines Trendlines display "average momentum". While a line drawn under any two lows has limited value, the addition of a third low creates order and a prediction point for future reversals. Combined with other chart features, trendlines uncover dynamic momentum information.
Price Channels Channels predict order with only two distinct trend lows. But, these must be matched by two corresponding highs of the same slope. While logic suggests that these formations rarely occur, the opposite is true. They are easier to locate than clean trendlines.
Arcs Rounding formations are difficult to quantify. The evolving slope may not maintain a constant rate of change. This reduces its effectiveness for prediction. Use arcs as visual tools to estimate rounding reversal bottoms and tops.
Fibonacci Ratios One of the most powerful tools in technical analysis, Fibonacci remains poorly understood. This "proportional force of nature" measures retracement and testing of trend impulses. For moves to remain intact, the 62% level must provide support.

Averaging Tools combine and smooth data sets into directional and acceleration forecasts:

Moving Average Crossovers Simple crossovers mark key shifts in momentum. They form the foundation of many complex trading strategies. But, watch out. This method has severe limitations in sideways markets. During negative feedback, moving averages will emit continuous false signals.
Averaging Rainbows Use of five or more color-coded moving averages displays continuous data on evolving momentum change. In addition to targeting price strength within the rainbow bands, the lines themselves draw complex patterns with superb predictive capacity.
Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) Gerald Appel's classic moving average interaction tool found new power when expressed as a histogram. Momentum changes accurately track the oscillating slopes. Create profitable entry-exit rules with this rewarding tool.

Strength Tools measure rates of price and range ascent-descent over different time frames:

Rate of Change Directional price movement often hides within the twists and turns of price bars. Rate of change indicators filter visual data into actual price progression. ROC lines develop their own support / resistance, trendlines and patterns. Key pattern breaks in advance of price can trigger important convergence-divergence signals.
Relative Strength Index Don't trade without this important tool. RSI measures the "quality" of price movement by comparing UP days with DOWN ones. Like ROC, RSI creates patterns that respond more quickly than price change. Use overbought and oversold levels to close positions and prepare reversal strategies.
Stochastics Stochastics accurately measure short-term shifts in price momentum. But, once this indicator pierces the extremes of its wide bands, useful information ceases. As trend takes over, it wobbles randomly until conditions change. As lines move back into the center zone, measure strength through double top/bottom formations.
Bar Range Analysis Short-term traders should closely examine small price bar formations. Narrow and wide range bars signal measurable change within the crowd and impending price movement. One classic pattern is NR7, the narrowest range bar of the last 7. These predict breakouts that can be safely traded in the direction of the first impulse.

Trendlines
Trendlines join three or more reaction lows or highs into a straight line. This core element of technical analysis has many applications beyond its well-known uses. Standing alone though, trendlines contain limited information regarding momentum shifts.

The indicator plots average momentum for the trend being studied and nothing else. The rate of price change up or down the line always remains constant. Trendlines will provide significant momentum change feedback when compared with other chart data. As constant ROC indicators, these straight lines will measure convergence-divergence against any other price inputs.

Trend Relativity
The relationship between trendlines and other chart properties shifts relative to the time frame of each element. The trader must properly tune time to explore different aspects of momentum. Make certain the time inputs match the holding period for the intended execution. When day trading, for example, the plot of a 6-month trendline has no meaning unless price touches it that day. But, the return of a 5-minute candlestick to a 3-hour trendline will pinpoint an excellent entry zone.

Three common chart features will measure momentum change when combined with trendlines:

	Other trendline(s)
	Moving averages
	Price bars or candlesticks

When one or more of these elements accelerates away from the studied line, momentum is increasing as it diverges. Conversely, as these indicators roll over to point back "home", signals flash converging deceleration. Combining all of these features into a single momentum system will produce powerful trading signals.

Moving Averages
Moving averages contain more immediate feedback on momentum change than trendlines but are burdened by one severe limitation. Their computation forces useful data to lag current events. By the time a simple 20-bar average curves upward to reflect accelerating price, the move has already matured and may even be over. While exponential calculations (EMAs) and other smoothing adjustments speed up signals, action bells ring way too late for most momentum entries.

Using multiple moving averages overcomes this time drawback and provides timely feedback on momentum change. The simplest tool for this study is the Moving Average Crossover. Two averages are chosen based on different time frames and their convergence is tracked. Signals are generated when the short average crosses above or below the longer one. The challenge with crossovers is finding the time sequence that elicits the most profitable information about the studied market. Also, filters must be built to ignore crossovers in choppy conditions when moving averages give false signals.

An effective technique for studying momentum change is the MACD Histogram, popularized by Dr. Alexander Elder in his book Trading for a Living. Using 12- and 26-period moving averages smoothed by 9 periods, MACD creates a visual momentum ladder. As MACD rises, momentum increases. A zero line pinpoints the center balance zone. Positive acceleration flags as columns thrust above this point. Likewise, down steps below the line signal negative acceleration.

Moving Average Rainbows provide multi-time frame, multi-dimensional views of shifting momentum. Rainbows combine 5 to 8 averages, color-coded by the user's software program. Identifiable patterns develop between the averages, allowing for sophisticated analysis of impending acceleration and deceleration. Like spreading fingers, rainbow averages respond incrementally to advancing trends and provide targeted entry-exit points.

Strength Indicators
Analysis of a closing bar's contribution to recent price action creates a variety of strength indicators. These important tools range from simple comparisons with prior values to complex pattern analysis based on expansion and contraction of high-low bar lengths. Their common theme identifies the momentum pulse in the relative strength of closing price. While endless techniques accomplish this same task, several contain all the horsepower needed to beat the momentum monster.

Price Rate of Change offers an elementary computation for tracking momentum. Price bar patterns often hide developing directional movement. ROC compares current price with the value x periods ago and plots it below the bar chart on a line graph. As momentum escalates, ROC often curves upward ahead of a breakout. And, this versatile indicator works just as well signaling impending breakdowns and plunges.

Stochastics and RSI are well known for targeting overbought-oversold zones in constricted ranges. These popular oscillators also have tremendous value in charting momentum. Plotting their values on a chart reveals pattern characteristics similar to price bar ascent and descent.

These tools differ from price due to the extreme zones they cannot pass. In theory, price can go upward to infinity. Oscillators can go no further than 0% or 100% before turning back. But, as their directional movement follows price swings, patterns of acceleration-deceleration quickly reveal themselves.

Futures markets have used range bar analysis for years. A classic on the subject, Toby Crabel's Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakouts, investigates how expanding candle and bar patterns characterize momentum in many commodities and indices. The emotional crowd provides fuel as bar range stretches in the direction of the prevailing trend. Finally, a climax bar prints a sharp reversal under surging volume.

Computation indicators (such as stochastics) measure bar range indirectly. By going straight to the bars themselves, visual analysis yields profitable short-term prediction. However, not all markets can be accurately examined through range changes. Low volume stocks, for example, carry high spreads that will distort signals. Limit bar analysis to highly liquid markets with low spreads and high average daily movement.

The Momentum Pulse
Momentum generates force as increasing volatility resolves itself into directional movement. This dynamic trending state invokes a measurable shift from negative to positive feedback. While subsequent thrusts may appear chaotic, price movement contains many cyclical features. Pulses will often be proportional in time duration and length. This tendency allows traders to calculate reward:risk through measured move analysis. As an added benefit, these expected reversal points can also be watched for profitable swing entries.

Markets inhale and exhale. Each burst of market excitement alternates with extended periods of relative inactivity. Prices trend only 10% to 20% of the time. The balance is spent absorbing instability created from a momentum thrust. The interface between the end of an inactive period and the start of the next surge often hosts a "quiet" neutral point. Paradoxically, this Empty Zone will ignite well-tuned entry signals.

Prior to beginning each new breath, the body experiences a moment of silence as the last exhalation completes. The markets regenerate momentum in a similar manner. The Empty Zone emerges as the return to stability concludes. Because instability alone will change that condition, volatility then sparks a new action cycle.

Cross-Verification
Momentum change indicators work best when combined with other technical tools. This process of cross-verification searches for repeated confirmation of any signal through other methods of technical analysis. But, watch out. Many indicators are built on top of better-known calculations. Accidentally using one of these derivative measurements carries substantial risk. It will automatically confirm your findings just by recalculating a tool already used and give false confidence to the trade.

Verify technical conditions using dissimilar forms of analysis. For example, after seeing momentum surge on stochastics, try duplicating that observation using a line tool. Or, when multiple moving averages suggest an impending thrust, analyze the recent short-term price bars to locate narrow-range days.

Fibonacci ratios offer the most powerful form of cross-verification in all of technical analysis. Price impulses faithfully retrace similar percentages of a completed move before finally reversing or continuing the prevailing trend. Examining the price action near these support / resistance zones will identify significant bounce reversal opportunities when other indicators offer support.

Using Fibonacci requires only a calculator or Fib Line Grid (available with most charting analysis software). Hidden support / resistance exist at 38, 50 and 62% of the prior trend. Price will often bounce like a pool ball back and forth across this marvel of mathematics.

Exit
Traders fail when they don't manage their losses. The lure of the big gain disables unbiased evaluation. Danger increases significantly when trading in a high momentum environment. The wide swings ensure price will move through a 10 to 40% range in a very short time frame. While position traders can consider well-placed stops, many short-term and day trading vehicles don't allow limit management.

Positions should never be entered without anticipating an appropriate escape route.
Winning is a tough game. Each trader must compete against all other participants and take their money. And, exchange rules always favor market insiders highly skilled in shaking small players out of their positions. To find an edge, remote traders must replace mechanical self-control (stops) with strong mental discipline.

Use technical analysis and drill key price swing numbers of favored markets into memory. Target an acceptable tick loss average. If the average tick gain isn't larger, the winning percentage will need to be well above 70% to turn acceptable profits. Improve results by getting your loss average down before considering how to let your profits run further. And, keep current, accurate records. Relying on memory to determine results allows the mind to play cruel tricks.

Finally, consider the real nature of your trading account size and leverage. The well-greased competition can overcome transaction costs by moving large blocks. Balance the leverage of your account against the costs of taking positions. And, use drawdowns as a signal to lighten up and slow down.

Alan Farley
Editor / Publisher
Hard Right Edge
www.hardrightedge.com

*Reprinted (and modified) with permission from Alan Farley

....and the goal is to stay in business

2008-02-19T23:24:00.003+08:00

Below is an interesting article that I received and I would like to share it here.

The Psychology of Trading

Only the Zeros Are Different:

How Great Traders Go Bad

By John A. Sarkett, Developer, Option Wizard*

Like a pilot, a police officer or a trapeze artist, a professional trader knows he or she must follow the rules just to stay alive. Usually, this bracing thought is enough to focus the mind. Usually, this awareness suffices.

But, occasionally, the realization is lost.

Mistakes follow.

Losses mount.

An otherwise great trader succumbs.

A great trader goes bad.

How to avoid that tragic circumstance was the subject of a Futures Industry Association presentation in Chicago by Ray Kelly, professional trader and trading coach.

"Large traders trade more zeros than small traders, but the process is the same," Kelly says. "Both on the upside and the downside."

The catalyst for destruction, Kelly says, is most often ego.

Ego is the Ebola virus to the active trader.

There is an antidote, however — balance, humility and the ability to accept being wrong.

Can you or I become infected? Of course we can!

What can be done to protect against ego and its devastating effects?

Kelly says pay close, introspective attention to the following four areas: Self-knowledge, market knowledge, trading strategy and risk management. Answer the hard questions for yourself, before the market does. Like meditation, or exercise, attention must be paid each day for maximum effectiveness.

Self-Knowledge
First, when you come into your trading room, leave your ego entirely outside the door. Kelly defines ego as the sense of who we believe we are: A trader, a religious person, a father, a spouse, etc.

When the over-inflated ego gains the throne, rules go out the door. Egotism consumes natural and healthy caution, replacing it with an illusion of invincibility. An overdeveloped ego fells even the most successful, sometimes especially the most successful trader.

Expecting occasional failure, the trapeze artist practices with a net. He or she knows that the body is not more durable than the concrete below. The trapeze artist knows that he or she can only exist in the high-flying environment by following the rules.

Trouble is, ego is not software that can be easily re-installed in the trader psyche. It is hardware. You and I are hard-wired with ego. Ego is self-identity. Ego never wants to be ignored, left out, left behind. But, sometimes it gets out of control and becomes self-absorbed and unrealistic. Sometimes, you have to decide not to run with the crowd. But, to do so, you have to go against your wiring.

There is something in the human that wants to believe in the hero, the guru, the champion, and, for many, that belief is coupled with a desire to become that person. If you can't become the hero, it is almost as good to run with him or her — a dream come true!

Usually, you can't. You may only watch the hero from the stands or the balcony. But, in the financial markets, you have the opportunity to participate directly or partner with the prospective hero. His or her glory becomes your glory. This prospect is so appealing, so motivating, it will cause some of us to leave sense, common or otherwise, far, far behind.

Watch out!

In the 1980s, I participated in a risk arbitrage managed account program at a major brokerage firm, supposedly run by supertraders. Ascending to the hero's podium, my account executive disclosed that returns were expected to be 60 to 100 percent, but, if only mediocre returns were generated, the return might be as low as 30 percent or so.

Hundreds of trades (and commissions) later, I went through the laborious task of reconstructing the trading history and actual return of my account. It was 12 percent, exactly the money market rate of the day.

Contrast the swashbuckling image of the wanna-be trading hero with the wry and self-deprecating words of $1.5 billion Chesapeake Capital CEO and former Turtle Trader Jerry Parker (another FIA speaker), who says, "We know we don't know what we're doing."

Far from true, (he meant that we can't predict rate cuts, market movements, the future), but this kind of modesty contrasts sharply with what is said by those promising spectacular returns and is undoubtedly a better and safer way to sail the market oceans. His trading methodology is to take trend-following positions across many markets, expecting a few large gains to outweigh numerous losses.

Defining Success
While the psyche is often looking for others to admire and emulate, it is not taking the time and effort to define success for itself. This is usually too much hard work. Easier and more fun to soak up the vibes from the hero or try to be one yourself.

What is success? For speaker, Ray Kelly, it has been earning 200K to 300K each year, 40 percent returns, no drawdowns and the opportunity to spend time with his wife and children, he says.

To define your own success, you must answer these questions.
	Who am I?
	Why do I trade?
	How do I prepare?
	What are my beliefs about myself? About trading?
	Am I ready to handle the pressures of trading?

Sound too easy? Have you ever actually done it? Kelly says, "Great truths unfold at the level of the student. As a student learns more, these questions become deeper and more profound."

Ray Kelly's own introspection involved working through a family background that included an alcoholic father and a very religious Catholic background. The religious background left him believing that it was evil to be rich. The instability in his home made him feel that, somehow, all the tension and insecurity was because of him. Therefore, he was not worthy of success.

These powerful subconscious beliefs limited his success, that is, until he worked through them. When he resolved his own conflicts, he was able to progress to a higher level of trading success.

Do these subconscious messages really sabotage your trading? Kelly relates the story of a trading associate. His son died in a tragic accident. Blaming himself, he started losing significant sums the very next week.

Kelly further cites a university study that indicates a high degree of unresolved guilt among prisoners. The study concludes that prisoners committed crimes so that external activity would match internal guilt, not the other way around.

Other enemies of trading success: Divorce, employment change, trauma, illness or anything that creates emotional distractions or pain.

"If you owned a Testarossa, you wouldn't think anything of having it checked and tuned on a regular basis," Kelly says. "Many trader egos are too big for a regular tuneup, however."

What to do? Often you do not realize that you are laboring under the weight of conflict. It shows up as poor performance or an inability to follow your rules. Losses are the inevitable by-product.

What to do? It depends on the person and the severity of the problem. The best course to take is to do introspective exercises constantly. Know the resources you need before you need them.

If you are already in the fire? Walk away. Take time off. Get counseling. Don't trade in the financial markets until your conflicts are resolved. Do not make the expensive mistake of thinking that, whatever "it" is, it will go away if you ignore it.

Other questions to ask yourself about your state of mind, according to Kelly, are:
	Do others comment on my personality traits negatively?
	Do I suffer extremes in emotion?
	Is my body sending me a message?
	Am I uncomfortable with this subject?
	Do I take responsibility for my actions?

"Society teaches us to places blame, to externalize our failures," Kelly says. "Bad system. Bad broker. Bad quotes. Introspection is just too painful for most."

But to be a successful trader, you must go against the grain and do the heavy lifting of introspection.

Approach the Markets with Equanimity
Kelly says to incorporate a "bottlecap" mentality into your trading. "Like Laverne & Shirley on the TV sitcom at the Schott's Brewery, you put one bottlecap on after another, and then you go home and plan your excitement after work," he says. "Don't seek excitement from the markets, or, unhappily, you may find it."

Similarly, R. Jerry Parker says trading is a brick-upon-brick enterprise, but that Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) clients prefer a "rock star" approach. "They want magic," he says.

Trading in some 70 of the most liquid 150 futures markets, patiently seeking break-outs, the Chesapeake system is a technical, trend-following system. The system will generate 200 trades per year, of which some six will pay for losses and generate returns, he says. Obviously, if you invest too much negative emotion in the 194 losers, you likely won't be around for the six big winners.

Market Knowledge
Market knowledge is the second major pillar you must depend on to avoid a market catastrophe.

You must ask yourself, continuously:
	What affects markets?
	How? How might things be changing?
	When do you know you are wrong?
	What are you trying to extract from the markets?

Kelly cites as a successful example trader David Druz, who runs the Tactical Asset Management Fund.

Druz defines exactly what his system does: "My trading system captures the capital that hedgers use to defend positions." He has back tested and quantified it, and so he knows and expects that his system will generate 30 percent drawdowns. But, over time, he has achieved excellent results because he is focused, he understands his markets, he has good money management rules and he looks to a realistic time horizon within which he plans his trading.

Part of market knowledge is defining how much you expect to make in the markets. If you're a typical newcomer, you may be looking to double your money. There is, for example, a popular phrase in options trading: "percent to double" (i.e., the percent your underlying must move to generate a doubling of your options price). For a pro like Jerry Parker, CEO of Chesapeake Capital, the answer is much more modest. His goal: 2 percent per month.

Trading Strategy
Third, develop your trading system. For Chesapeake Capital, the system is rule-based, trend-following, diversified, no bias short or long.

"This flies in the face of what clients want: Graduates of fancy schools, huge research, an intuitive approach that knows what's going to happen before it happens (e.g., be overweight in the stock market before an interest rate cut)," Parker says. "But, obviously you can't know what's going to happen before it happens, and maybe the rate cut is the start of a major trend, and maybe it's o.k. to get in after. That's our approach."

Kelly also advises traders to develop a trading system that they can actually follow. A system that is geared to their own personality and financial means. Kelly says, "If you have abstract ideas of what you want and how you are going to accomplish it, that is what you will get, an abstract result."

Test your system, he says.
	What are the characteristics of the system?
	Is it consistent?
	Do you understand why it works?
	Does it work in all markets?
	Does it fit your personality?

Then, attend to business: Do your homework every night. Your competitors do. Determine your answers the night before the market.

Risk Management
Fourth, and most importantly, you must manage risk. No matter how great your knowledge of yourself and the markets is or how sound your system is, if you don't manage risk, you won't last.

Kelly says the successful, long-term trader must answer:
	How much risk per trade? (Various traders risk .05 to 5 percent of capital per trade. You must fit this figure to your system.)
	Do I understand my risk?
	Is my system discretionary or systematic? (A systematic approach takes all signals generated by a trading system. A discretionary system does not mean haphazard trading but, rather, allows the trader to make exceptions to what he or she buys or sells within the framework of the signals generated.)
	Where are my stops, what is the meaning of my stops?
	Quantify risk. Two words that separate the world of success and the world of failure.

Losses are expected. You are not a bad trader if you experience them. Options broker Jerry Kopf, Benjamin & Jerold, Chicago, puts it this way, "It's okay to be wrong. It's not okay to stay wrong."

Kelly makes a distinction between what some people call "drawdowns" and what he calls "losses" A "drawdown" is a loss taken within a defined strategy. It is part of the strategy.

If you do not have a strategy, it is a loss. People misname the loss in the hope of avoiding the pain and to deceive themselves. A drawdown is not a personal statement about you; it is an expected part of the business plan.

Unwilling to take a small loss? For those involved in the spectacular blow-ups of recent times, small losses no longer were acceptable, so they were forced to accept disastrous losses. Keep losses predetermined and small. At best, professional traders are right 50 percent of the time or less, so they must take only small losses. A few large losses would put them out of business, and the goal is to stay in business.

"Money management is crucial," Kelly says. "This is why the exchanges have revolving doors — for those who don't master this critical skill."

Kelly notes that, when losing, amateurs increase bet size, but professionals decrease size. Don't try to catch up on one trade. If your system is sound, it will make money over time. You will recapture losses over time. And, that's okay. Because you are looking for 2 percent a month, correct? Not a fast double play.

Two Last Questions: The Bottom Line
Am I profitable?…
…And…
…Am I as profitable as I could be at my full potential?

If not, you must discover the reasons and make changes.

Ray Kelly repeated one message over and over at the presentation: "If you want to keep getting what you are getting, keep doing what you are doing."

Like the pilot, policeman or trapeze artist, you respect the rules of the game, you respect the boundaries, you respect how hard the concrete is, and how soft you are, and so you survive. The alternative is too costly in every way.

Credits
Ray Kelly is a veteran trader, financial consultant and seminar speaker. He passed away recently.

R. Jerry Parker is CEO of Chesapeake Capital, Richmond, Virginia.

David Druz is CEO of Tactical Investment Management Fund.

Jerry Kopf is a partner in Benjamin & Jerold Discount Stock and Options Brokers

John Sarkett writes on and trades in the financial markets. Developer of Option Wizard software (http://option-wizard.com), he can be reached at jas@option-wizard.com.

*Reprinted (and modified) with permission from John A. Sarkett

Live Trading - Day 4

2008-02-19T21:37:00.002+08:00

Alhamdullilah, managed to gather Green Pips for today.

Day 4, 19th February 2008

Projection Gain 3.39%

Actual Gain 4.03%

Variance +0.63%

Accumulated Projection Gain 13.27%

Accumulated Actual Gain 16.38%

May the result can be maintained and improved, Amin.

Live Trading - Day 3

2008-02-19T07:52:00.003+08:00

Alhamdullilah, Green Pips for today.

Day 3, 18th February 2008

Projection Gain 3.18%

Actual Gain 2.70%

Variance -0.4%

Accumulated Projection Gain 9.87%

Accumulated Actual Gain 12.36%

May the result can be maintained and improved, Amin

Note: Today is President's Day - Non-Trading Day in the U.S.
Market was slow and consolidating.

Live Trading - Day 2 ( Update 2)

2008-02-15T19:42:00.005+08:00

Alhamdullilah, Green Pips for today.

Day 2, 15th February 2008

Projection Gain 3.29%

Actual Gain 3.90%

Variance +0.61%

Accumulated Projection Gain 6.96%

Accumulated Actual Gain 9.66%

May the result can be maintained, Amin.

Is trading time consuming ?

2008-02-15T09:07:00.010+08:00

Many people thought that trading is time consuming. That you must be glued to your seat and watched the tickers tick...tick....tick. If you think like that, and discourage by it then.....you are mistaken. It is true, that most do glued their eyes on the screen. But, you don't have to be like that. It is like you are watching water drops one bit at a time. There is an alternative way.

For that very reason, you MUST master the indicators. Of course, they are not perfect. they are not the holy grail. Other than the wheel, I don't think there are any other human creations that are perfect, because as we evolve, change and transform, in the way we think, the way we do and the way we perceive to achieve our endless targets or desires, we try to improve, change, re-adjust, re-fine, modify, progress for better, better, and better. And that is the "beauty" of imperfection "installed" naturally to the perfect human being.

Now, let us get back to trading. Even though the indicators are not perfect, nonetheless, they can help you in your decision. If you want to re-create, re-improve, then just go ahead. When you master your indicators, it does not matter, whether RSI, MA, CS, and God know, so many indicators out there, you will make your trading experience a less stressful, non-time consuming, and some may find it 'boring', no adrenaline rush and most important in a long run, you are making more green pips than red pips.

Trading is NOT as difficult as most people may think. But, it is NOT as easy as 1 2 3 either. It can be learned. Learning is the key here. As long as you love patterns, charts, numbers, your computer your friend, not afraid to try, like to experiment your indicators and knowing human behaviors, then I think you can do trading. Time consuming ? Nay.

Till then.....thank you for reading.

May the "Green" be with you, Amin.

GJ - ( Update 1)

2008-02-15T07:29:00.010+08:00

Last night after Bernanke "words", GJ confirmed the bearish trend. The "mountain" formation and 2 MA lines "cross path" confirmed the selling signal.

The indicators signal:-

Trading Type: SELL

Entry Level range: 212.75-212.25

Exit Level/TP: 211.25

SL : 213.50

-Click on the Image for Clarity-

Thanks for reading.

Live Trading - Day 1 ( Update 1 )

2008-02-14T21:15:00.007+08:00

The live trading starts today. Alhamdullilah, the result beats the projection.

Day 1, 14th February 2008 (updated - end of the day)

Projection Gain 3.4%

Actual Gain 5.76%

Variance +2.36%

May the result can be maintained, Amin.

University Forex Trading Competition

2008-02-12T16:37:00.001+08:00

University Forex Trading Competition

(Media-Newswire.com) - Andrew Rielly, a student in The Charles F. Dolan School of Business at Fairfield University, placed second in a field of more than 100 competitors from 12 colleges and universities in a nationwide contest, the Texas A&M Inter-University Forex Trading Competition.

Rielly, a senior from Medford, N.J., took part in the mock trading competition to gain experience trading international currency in the foreign exchange market. "I really got into it. Late at night, I would be checking out the global markets. I applied a lot of technical, financial analyses in trading the Australian dollar, but I also used my intuition and wasn't afraid of risk."

Hosted by Texas A&M's Mays Business School’s Reliant Energy Securities and Commodities Trading Center, the contest had undergraduate and graduate students start off with $50,000 in simulated capital to make trades. The students then competed in the month-long contest to earn the highest rate of return on their $50,000 accounts, factoring in data such as real news events that can dramatically impact the market in a matter of moments. They also used Global Forex Trading ( GFT ) software that streams live price data for 60 foreign exchanges to inform their decisions.

Michael T. Tucker, D.B.A., professor of finance at the Dolan School, oversaw Fairfield students in the competition, believing it would test their knowledge and acumen as traders in the $3.2 trillion daily currency market. "Fairfield University again did very well this year, which is only our second time taking part. Andrew placed trades on GFT's DealBook 360 platform to grow his virtual currency trading account from $50,000 to $74,144, a 48.29 percent rate of return."

The winner was Texas A&M University student Vipin Sethi, who finished with nearly $90,000 of simulated capital in his account and a 78.64 percent rate of return. Last year, then Dolan School graduate student Alexander Dean won the competition, which Dr. Tucker has found to help students learn about the currency markets and develop their skills in fundamental trading, technical trading and foreign exchange rates. Dean, who earned both bachelor's and master's degrees from Fairfield, landed a trading job with UBS in large part due to his dual Fairfield degrees and impressive win.

Rielly, who recently was offered jobs with Lehman Brothers and UBS, noted, "I feel like what I've learned in my classes helped me. I'm grateful to Dr. Tucker. We also received daily e-mails from Brian Jennings, ( the head of corporate Forex Sales, UBS Investment Bank ), about the markets that proved very helpful."

Dr. Tucker invited Jennings to speak to students last semester in the Dolan School's high-tech Business Education Simulation & Trading ( BEST ) Classroom, a simulated trading floor that educates students about the volatility of the stock market and the dynamics of trading. Jennings sent Dolan School students daily updates on the Forex market - the same updates that UBS traders receive.

Students also gained some real life experience by using the Forex trading software, the type used by hedge fund managers and other professional traders who trade currencies to profit from fluctuating foreign exchange rates. To keep pace with the global markets, students had to rise long before dawn just as they would if they had jobs in the field.

Gary Tilkin, president and CEO of GFT, said in a press release that the competition is a great learning experience. "By pairing real-world experience with classroom instruction, this competition may help the students to be more prepared for successful careers in the global financial markets."

Media Contact: Meg McCaffrey, ( 203 ) 254-4000, ext. 2726

I wonder when Malaysia is going to "recognized" and hold this kind of competition. I remembered when I was in College, instead of encouraging, the Senior Lecturer told his students not to get involved with stock market trading. He gave us an assignment and asked us to pick one ticker and analyze the ticker. Our assignment is to know why the price moved up and down on daily basis. So, at that time, we were told about fundamental analysis and about the news which could influences the prices.

And then....the Senior Lecturer told us that (yes, in the lecture hall), if given a choice, he would not want to get involve in stock market trading. (translation: he is NOT encouraging his students to trade and he is NOT interested to teach that subject but since it is in the syllabus, he has too!).

Since then, I remembered his words and tried to understand the "why". Alhamdullilah, I am not that easy to be discouraged.

Oh well....that was more than 15 years ago.....maybe he changed his mind! May God bless my teacher. Amin.

Having Fun...........

2008-02-12T13:14:00.000+08:00

You must be wondering why I didn't write yesterday.....especially to those who are particular..."after all you promised yesterday?".....yes..yes...I am sorry. But sometimes, somethings just happened, and I just can't make it yesterday.

Anyway, yesterday till now....I am having fun with the simple indicators and playing them on demo account. I am using MT4 Platform - in case you are wondering.

I am using three simple indicators and combined them to help me making an entry and exit:-

1. Trend line

2. Moving Average

3. RSI

I will discuss more about the indicators and how they help me making my moves.

Right now....I am "experimenting" them .

Till then...thanks for reading.

So...you want to be a trader too ?

2008-02-10T00:32:00.000+08:00

The most important thing that you must do first and foremost is to invest your time to learn, read, research..........trading knowledge is very important. Do not do demo, as you in the "blind mode". You will not improved in demo without trading knowledge and you will lose in real account, big time. Do not be discourage when people said "95% traders failed", but try to find out why the "5% traders succeed". The 5% traders are like you and me too. We eat the same food, they don't eat metals to make them strong, but what makes them difference from the rest is that they have good knowledge, experiences and learned from the the experiences particularly the bad ones and not to forget patience.

There are many traders blogging their experiences or put their knowledge and experiences in financial forum threads. Just "google" around and you will find them. Learning from others mistakes is better, it can helps you to avoid making the same mistakes. List them and try to understand the why. That is how you are learning, through understanding. I know sometimes it is hard, as we grow old, our "learning capabilities" might be a bit slow or is that what our brain is conditioned to believe in. But don't worry, as long as you are determined, as long as you can change your mind setting, you can do this.

My favorite forums are the ones that i listed in the "Helpful Links". I will update it from time to time.

Do take your own time. The market will be there, it is not going anyway. So, don't rush. Remember the song..."only FOOLS rush in". Thats OK if you are slow. Most important, you understand the concepts, the systems, the tools and the timings. Remember, the best financial adviser is the one that you see in the mirror. It is your money, your time and never let others run your financial planning or the way you do your things.

So, do you want to become a trader, too ?

Tomorrow, InsyaAllah (God willing) I will write about a simple strategy that I just read.

Till then.........bye for now.

Forex and Islam - Allowable or Not

2008-02-08T10:53:00.000+08:00

Good writing on FOREX for the Muslims. It is written in Malay.

From Nogold

My conclusion is at the bottom of the article.

Sesiapa saja boleh memperkatakan tentang hukum.. tanpa disoal selidik dan kajian yang terperincil serta perbincangan yang sewajarnya.

Bagi penulis disiniâ€¦.sesuatu hukum mestilah berdasarkan perbincangan dengan perbagai ulamak (pakar) samaada ulama-ulama agama, pakar ekonomi dan pelbagai pihak lg..Sebenarnya soal hukum forex ini sudah lama, sejak kebelakangan ini dipersoalkan,semenjak pelabur2 kecil forex mula dibukakan secara online pada tahun 1995.

Sedangkan pelabur2 besar sudah sekian lama berdagang dalam FOREX semenjak dulu lagi.

FOREX ini ada susun galurnya dan peringkat perjalanannya .Ada beberapa pengkaji sejarah ekonomi mengatakan ia bermula daripada pertukaran barangan kemudian pertukaran wang.

Kita lihat bagaimana sejarah pertumbuhan pasar2 niaga atau market2 di negara Rom yang mula memperkenalkan tentang pasar niaga atau suuq maliah atau istilah Colleigin Marcaterum pada kurun ke-5 sebelum masehi.Kemudian berkembang dikalangan orang2 Yunani memperniagakan baranganya di Athena atau Athen dan dan berkembang juga pasar-pasar bagi kaum arab di zaman jahiliah.

Sebagaimana yang diterangkan dalam Al-Quran pada surah Quraisy yang mana kaum Quraisy menjalankan perniagaannya pada musim sejuk ke Yaman dan musim panas ke Negara Syam [Syiria] yang mana mereka bergerak masuk untuk berniaga di bandar2 besar yang dinamakan Bazara [Bazar] mereka mempamerkan barangan perniagaan dan lahirlah peraih atau orang tengah /broker untuk menyetujui harga barangan mereka.

Kemudian berkembang pula yang dikenali sebagai Al-Bursot atau Bursa [tempat berkumpul atau market] diakhir kurun ke-13 selepas Masihi setelah adanya pembinaan tempat perniagaan yang khusus atau market untuk peniaga2.

Dan berkembang pula Sorofah Al-Italiah [Italy Money Changer] atau tempat pertukaran wang asing yang diasaskan oleh orang Itali dan berkembang ke negara eropah seperti Denmark,German dan Perancis.

Pada tahun 1300 Masehi lahirlah pedagang2 besar yang termasyhur di bandar dan pusat2 perniagaan dunia pada ketika itu adalah di madinah burush [Bruge] Al-Baljikiyyah atau Belgium yang merupakan salah satu tempat yang strategik untuk pedagang2 Italy dan lahirlah tokoh koporat atau dalam bahasa arabnya dikenali sebagai rijalul-a`mal.

Setelah lahirnya tokoh-tokoh koporat yang begitu termasyhur dan ramai dibangunkan pula tempat simpanan harta atau wang atau bank pada tahun 1485 Masehi kemudian berkembanglah ke Antorp hingga tahun 1531 Masehi. [Ridhwan : Aswaq Auraq Al-Maliah M.S 28-29]

Seterusnya mulalah berkembang pasaran2 secara bersistem dan berorganisasi dengan gambaran masa kini yang sebelum ini terdapat beberapa peringkat pertumbuhan tempat2 perniagaan seperti di Perancis,London dan Amerika.

Kembali kita kepada perbincangan kita .Mengikut kefahaman umum rata2 mudah sahaja membuat hukum tanpa perlu kaji..asal jer bunyi SAHAM, RIBA.!.semuanya dihukumkan sebagai HARAM..tambahan bila satu hasil dagangan itu berkaitan dengan Bukan Islam,dan berhubung kait pula dengan Mata Wang Asing Dunia..majoriti adalah Bukan Hak Orang Islam..so, senang2 saja nak jatuhkan hukum itu dengan HARAM..Walhalnya..SAHAM atau RIBA itu tanpa kita sedari ada beberapa hukum yang diharuskan,berdasar beberapa faktor dari segi uruf dan sebab2 atau `illah seseorang itu.Dan kekadang ulama mengambil kira juga diatas dasar masyarakat awam/dan kemaslahatan dunia.

Rasanya secara rawak tak perlu lagilah kita mengguna wang kertas..tak perlu lagi kita pakai rumah tak perlu kita pakai itu dan ini sebab sah2 hendak menghukum perkara itu haram atau bidaah sebab tiada pd zaman Nabi S.A.W..Tetapi oleh sebab beberapa faktor tadi..diharuskan..disunatkan dan sebagainya.

Kalau diilihat dari segi kelebihan untuk membuat hukum itu sendiri..kebanyakkan individu Orang Islam itu sendiri hatta Negara Islam pun tiada dapat menguasai empayar ekonomi dunia ..walau pada asalnya ia adalah dari Islam sendiri..sebagai contoh dalam penggunaan dinar dan dirham atau pertukaran barangan import-export dan sebagainya.

Secara peribadi penulis juga mendapati kebanyakkan broker2 FOREX dalam Negara Islam Dunia pun tak terlepas dari membuat penjanjian atau ikatan akad dengan orang bukan Islam yang ditandatangani bersama.Individu Islam boleh menubuhkan BANK sahaja.. dari segi penguasaan market FOREX(Pertukaran Wang Asing Dunia) Kepada Orang Bukan Islam juga yang mengendalikan.Kalau nak bagi hukum berilah secara keseluruhan..jangan mengambil atau mencedok. senang2 nak mengugut2 dengan beberapa nas2 tertentu yang tidak jelas,hanya dari sudut pentejemahan makna sahaja.

Sebenarnya..apa2 hukum yang berkaitan dengan umum perlu kepada perbincangan dengan orang Bukan Islam..Bagi yang bijak pandai bersuara dan senang2 menghukum apa kata jemput Soros, Bernakne, Trichet,Junckle dan sebagainya untuk berbincang berikan pandangan kita dan satukan padangan dia..barulah beri Hujah /Hukum yang tepat dan orang Islam rasa puashati..kalau tidak rasa boleh..kembalikan kepada ISTINBAT HUKUM.

Sebenarnya perkara ini adalah perkara2 furu`[cabangan2 dalam agama] kita berbesar2kan..Kesudahannya..orang Islam juga sentiasa dalam kerugian dengan pertikaian yang tidak secara bijaksana dan hikmah sebagaimana yang dianjurkan dalam Islam..sebenarnya dalam Islam Itu adalah Indah dan mudah..Hanya orang Islam itu sahaja yang membuat ia menjadi sukar..dan menambah bebanan..Atas dasar kejahilan yang sendiri tidak mahu mangaku kelemahan.

Apa yang dpt disimpulkan Jumhur Ulama Feqh [Majoriti Ulama` Fekah]masa kini mengharuskan dalam permasalahan ini dan sumber2 dari perkara ini secara mutlak sepertimana juga pandangan Syeikh Muhammad Abduh,Dr.Muhammad Yusuf Musa,Syeikh Muhammad Al-Khalisi [Rehda,Muhammad Rasyid: Tafsir Al-Manar Al-Qaherah : Terbitan Darul Manar Cetakan Ke-3 1952]

Diikutinya Syeikh Mahmoud Shaltut[Syeikh Al-Azhar] [Dalam Al-Fatawa M.S 355 Jeddah.Darul Syuruq Cetakan 8 1975M] walaupun didapati ada unsur-unsur riba didalamnya adalah dikira sebagai darurat atau keadaan terpaksa.

Pandangan ini juga diterima oleh pensyarah Universiti Al-Azhar seperti Dr. Husni Abdul As-Samie Ibrahim.Pensyarah Feqh dan Perbandingan di University Al-Azhar Cawangan New Damietta City,Mesir.Dalam kitabnya Qodhoya Feqhiyyah Iqtisodiah Muasorah[Perbahasan Fekah Ekonomi Semasa Cetakan Tahun 2006M.]

Manakala ulama` lain mengharuskan dengan mengariskan syarat2 tertentu berpendapat :

1- Syeikh Abdul Wahab Khalaf pula[Khalaf :Muhammad Abdul Wahab: Ilmu Usul Feqh M.S 238 -Alkuwait : Darul Qalam Cetakan 20 1986M] mensyaratkan tidak ada padanya unsur2 riba.

2-Syeikh Ali Al-Khafif [lihat As-Syarikat Fil Islami M.S 98] mensyaratkan tidak didatangkan dalamnya asal-asal dalam agama secara keseluruhan seperti diharamkan riba dan penjualan daging babi.

3- Syeikh Al-Qardhawi pula yang mensyaratkan tidak meliputi kerja2 syarikat diatas perkara yang dilarang dalam agama seperti perkilangan dan penjualan Arak tidak terlibat dengan pinjaman yang berkadar faedah.[Al-Qardhawi :Yusuf, Feqhu-Azzakat Beirut Muassasah Ar-risalah Cetakan 2 1973M].

Dalam agama perkara yang jelas asal itu haram..haram lah..tapi disebabkan ulama di

Malaysia

ini adalah masih ditahap yang lama dari segi pengintinbatan hukum boleh memecah-belahkan dan mengongkong umat Islam itu sendiri.

Begitu juga dalam masalah Mazhab bagi mereka yang belajar dan tahu mana-mana atau 4 mazhab dalam feqh atau pandangan mazhab pun kita boleh pakai mengikut keadaan kita nescaya kita tidak lagi menjadi pertelingkahan dengan syarat ulama itu memainkan peranan untuk menjelaskan dengan bijaksana dan berhikmah kepada masyarakat awam bukan di atas kepentingan sesuatu yang dikehendaki dan diharapkanâ€¦

Di Mesir sendiri walaupun majoriti adalah Mazhab Imam Hanafiah tetapi ulama juga membicarakan/menerima pandangan dari kefahaman Imam2 lain.

Kesimpulannya..sapa2 nak berpegang kepada HARAM..hukumlah tetapi perlu kepada hujah2..begitu juga kepada yang menghukum kepada benda ini HARUS perlu juga kepada hujah..TETAPI perlu ingat..jangan terus kepada hukum yang kita sendiri samar2 dan mengugut2 dengan nas2 tidak jelas,dengan kata lain hanya teori..tanpa praktikal..
Bagi HARUS juga adalah kemaslahatannya kerana disana ada perselisihan pendapat ulama dalam perbicaraan perkara-perkara furu (cabang) dlm.agama.

Contoh mengikut instinbat ulama feqh..kalau arak hukumnya adalah haram sbb memabukkan.bagaimana pula dengan ubat bius, tak diharamkan..sedangkan kedua2nya adalah memabukkan ..so,kerana disitu ada maslahatnya dalam perubatan.

Bagaimana nak fahamkan kalimah istinbat ? Penulis memberikan contoh KEJU, zaman2 dahulu nama keju,dadih,yougurt belum lagi tercipta ..tetapi ASAL keju, itu sudah ada iaitu SUSU,dan sekarang sudah tercipta macam2 hasil dari tenusu tersebut, pada asalnya adalan Susu Lembu begitu juga seperti BUAH LIMAU dulu limau adalah sebiji buah..tetapi dari ISTIBATnya sebiji limau itu..terhasillah pil2 vitamin C atau Jus..

Begitulah dalam permasalahan hukum ulama mengambil dari asal mengikut kepentingan dan kemaslahatan umat Islam masakini..kalau wang kertas kita pakai masakini pun ada maslahatnya atau kebaikkannya kalau penggunaa emas terus..kemungkinan risiko lebih besar..maka diistibatkan kepada perciptaan kad kredit..sekarang ini pula orang memakai pula e-currency seperti e-gold,paypal,moneybookers dan sebagainya..semuanya alternatif risiko dan kebaikan utk urusan jual-beli mengikut kesesuaian peredaran masa,sempadan dan tempat.

Fikir2kanlah mana yang patut kita elakkan samada Lebih baik hidup dicengkam dengan hutang-piutang dari hidup bebas hutang hutang wajib dibayar walaupun tidak dituntut...

Pesan syeikhku ingatlah kebinasaan ulama adalah cintakan pangkat,harta dan wanita. !!

Conclusion: Allowable (blogger's note)

New Dawn

2008-02-05T12:34:00.000+08:00

Actually, I have been watching and studying FOREX for quite some time. True, I started my trading world with equities. Somehow, in the past few years, FOREX has become so widely discussed in every financial forums.

In Malaysia, year 2007 has been a flexible year for FOREX controls as Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has made a Liberalization on the Foreign Exchange Controls. According to the new rules on investment in foreign currency assets by residents among others are relaxed as follows:

ECM 7: Foreign Currency Accounts (FCA)

A resident individual is allowed to open FCA with the licensed onshore banks, Labuan offshore banks and overseas banks for any purpose.

A resident individual is allowed to maintain joint FCA for any purpose.

Of course, there are also a lot of religious talk about FOREX too. Most regards FOREX as haram or non-khoser by "ustaz". Well, I am not going to that extend with FOREX, forgive-me, if I have offended some people about this. Why, you may asked? If FOREX is not khoser, then what about those who work in the banks....with insurance companies.....where usury or riba is practised in the name of "interest" ? In Islam, riba or usury is clearly non-khoser or forbidden and we are living in the time that is mentioned specifically in this hadith Narrated byAbuHurayrah The Prophet (peace be upon him) said: A time is certainly coming to mankind when only the receiver of usury will remain, and if he does not receive it, some of its vapour will reach him. Ibn Isa said: Some of its dust will reach him. And that time is Now........

Alhamdullilah (All Praise to Allah), there are few Forex brokers which are Muslim friendly ....and I have open an account with one of them, InsyaAllah (God willing)

For a start, I just let one of my trader friend to trade for me. I am still in the learning process, InsyaAllah, when the time comes, I will jump in and trade from home.

For a start I am going to study EU, GU, and GJ. I am also looking at UC and UAD. Of course not forgetting, the US market as knowing the market also helps in trading FOREX, especially when the rate cuts, oil reserves down, employment rate down and so on....

I think i better pen-down here...till next time

p/s By the way, just for the record, I got paid by Hariz and Azmi on the 30th January 2008....Thanks guys.

Done with the Company...........

2008-02-05T12:13:00.000+08:00

I realized trading with the Company was "not-right". Yes, I was progressing well. However, I am not comfortable trading without discipline. True, before the trading started I was told to trade certain tickers or industries. But when trading started, the tickers changed....industries changed. Maybe some traders can handled this scenario, however, I like to stick to plan or if there is a change, I need to observe and watch the ticker before entering into trades. Imagine getting into trades without proper planning....it is like going into the "well" blindly. At least give me the chance to throw "something" into the well, to "feel" the depth...

After doing a lot of thinking....I decided to inform the Company, I am not a suitable trader for his Company. Alhamdullilah, we finished well.

Target Tickers

2008-01-13T02:20:00.000+08:00

Depending on the market next week, here are the tickers which I am going to watch:-

Financial ---> MTG , SOV , WM , MBI , DFS , NCC

Home Building ------> DHI , KBH , LEN , PHM
Construction --------> KBR

I only choose ticker that is less than $20.00 , except for KBR as I think it is worth to watch.

Other than Candle Stick (CS), I also use RSI and if the RSI is below 50, I might short and long if the RSI is above 70, and I confirm it with CS.

In today news, Saudi Prince along with China Development Bank are going to rescue Citi. I am not sure how the market is going to re-act as the news indicating that Asian is buying US owned Bank. On the positive side, new funds are coming to "revive" Citi and the US economy. On the not so positive side, the ones who are doing the rescue are Saudi Arabia and China,the foreigners.

Note: Ticker Images from Yahoo.com

Good Article - Housing Bust

2008-01-13T01:07:00.000+08:00

Article below is relevant to those who trade US markets (like me) and Forex (USD$)

US Markets (NYSE)

a. Financial Sector/Loans/Thrifts & Mortgage Finance

MTG SOV WM COF MBI DFS NCC MCO WFC SLM

b. Homebuilding CTX DHI KBH LEN PHM HD LOW

c. Construction KBR

http://www.forexpeacearmy.com

What Caused the USA housing bust? - 12-25-2007, 08:10 AM

This is an article from stansbury re the bust and if it is likely to continue. As it effects the USD and forex trading in 2008 it is good to know what exactly happened and is likely to continue happening. What Caused the Housing Bust
Originally published in the August 14 edition of The S&A Digest

Porter - I have recently read two items from your group (Graham Summers and Tom Dyson) that mentioned that insiders at mortgage companies had been buying shares in their own companies in large chunks as recently as the end of July... since insider buying is supposed to be a good indicator that a bottom is somewhere close, and assuming these insiders weren't expecting to lose 30 or 40% of their money in just a few weeks, I wonder if something very unusual is going on in these markets. Why were these guys so wrong this time? Why couldn't they see problems that were just weeks away when normally they can? What is so unusual about the current times that so many smart people could be so catastrophically wrong?

What happened (and what is still happening) is simply leverage in reverse, or what people used to call a "run on the bank." But... I think a great more detail would be helpful for you to understand. Please excuse the intricacies: None of this stuff is very easy to understand the first time you think about it. I'll try to avoid using any jargon…

For nearly 10 years, as interest rates fell from 1995 to 2005, the mortgage and housing business boomed as more and more capital found its way into housing. With lower rates, more people could afford to buy houses. That was good. Unfortunately, it didn't take long for some people to figure out that with rates so low, they could buy more than one. Or even nine or 10. As more money made its way into housing, prices for real estate went up – 20% a year for several years in some places. The higher prices created more equity... that could then be used as collateral for still more debt. This is what leads to a bubble.

Banks, hedge funds, and insurance companies were happy to fund the madness because they believed new "financial engineering" could take lower-quality home loans (like the kind with zero down payment) and transform these very risky loans, made at the top of the market, into AAA-rated securities. Let me go into some detail about how this worked.

Wall Street's biggest banks (Goldman Sachs, Lehman Bros., Bear Stearns) would buy, say, $500 million worth of low-quality mortgages, underwritten by a mortgage broker, like NovaStar Financial. The individual mortgages – thousands of them at a time – were organized by type and geographic location into a new security, called a residential mortgage-backed security (RMBS). Unlike a regular bond, whose coupon is paid by a single corporation and organized by maturity date, RMBS securities were organized into risk levels, or "tranches." Thousands of homeowners paid the interest and principal for each tranche. Rating agencies (like Moody's) and other financial analysts, believed these large bundles of mortgages would be safer to own because the obligation was spread among thousands of separate borrowers and organized into different risk categories that, in theory, would protect the buyers. For example, the broker (like NovaStar) that originated the mortgages would be on the hook for any early defaults, which typically only occurred in fraudulently written mortgages. After that risk padding, the next 3%-5% of the defaults would be taken out of the "equity slice" of the RMBS.

The "equity slice" was the riskiest part of the RMBS. It was typically sold at a wide discount to the total value of the loans in this category, meaning that if defaults were less than expected, the buyer of this part of the package could make a capital gain in addition to a very high yield. Even if defaults were average, the buyer would still earn a nice yield. Hedge funds loved this kind of security because the yield on it would cover the interest on the money the fund would borrow to buy it. Hedge funds could make double-digit capital gains annually, cost-free and risk-free... or so they thought. As long as home prices kept rising and interest rates kept falling, almost every RMBS was safe. Even if a buyer got into trouble, he could still sell his home for more than he paid or find a way to restructure the debt. On the way up, from 1995-2005, there were very few defaults. Everyone made money, which attracted still more money into the market.

----------

After the equity tranche, typically one or two more risk levels offered higher yields at a lower-than-AAA rating. After those few, thin slices, the vast majority of the RMBS – usually 92% of the loan package – would be rated AAA. With an AAA rating, banks, brokerage firms, and insurance companies could own these mortgages – even the exotic mortgages with changing interest rates or no down payments. With the magic of financial engineering and by ordering the perceived risk, financial firms from all over the world could fill their balance sheets with higher-yielding mortgage debt that would pass muster with the regulators charged with making sure they held only the safest assets in reserve.

For a long time, this arrangement worked well for everyone. Wall Street's banks made a fortune packaging these securities. They even added more layers of packaging – creating CDOs (collateralized debt obligation) and ABSs (asset-backed security) – which are like mutual funds that hold RMBS.

Buyers of these securities did well, too. Hedge funds made what looked like risk-free profits in the equity tranche for years and years.

Insurance companies, banks, and brokers were able to earn higher returns on assets by buying RMBSs, CDOs, or ABSs instead of Treasury bonds or AAA-rated corporate debt. And because the collateral was considered AAA, financial institutions of all stripes were able to increase the size of their balance sheets by continuing to borrow against their RMBS inventory. This, in turn, supplied still more money to the mortgage market, which kept the mortgage brokers busy. Remember all the TV ads to refinance your mortgage and the teaser rate loans?

The cycle kept going – more mortgage securities, more leverage, more loans, more housing – until one day the marginal borrower blinked. We'll never know who or why... but somewhere out there, the "greater fool" failed to close on that next home or condo. Beginning in about the summer of 2005, the momentum began to slow... and then slowly... imperceptibly... it began to shift.

All the things the cycle had going for it from 1995 to 2005 began to turn the other way. Leverage, in reverse, is devastating.

The first sign of trouble was an unexpectedly high default rate in subprime mortgages. Beginning in early 2007, studies of 20-month-old subprime mortgages showed a default rate greater than 5%, much higher than expected. According to Countrywide Mortgage, the default rate on the riskiest loans made in 2005 and 2006 is expected to grow to as high as 20% – a new all-time record. The big jump in subprime defaults led to the first hedge-fund blowups, such as the May 2007 shutdown of Dillon Reed Capital Management, which lost $150 million in subprime investments in the first quarter of 2007.

Since Dillon Reed Capital, dozens of more funds have blown up as the "equity slice" in mortgage securities collapsed. Remember, these equity tranches were supposed to be the "speed bumps" that protected the rest of the buyers. With the safety net of the equity tranche removed, these huge securities will have to be downgraded by the rating agencies. For example, on July 10, Moody's and Standard and Poor's downgraded $12 billion of subprime-backed securities. On August 7, the same agencies warned that another $1 billion of "Alt-A" mortgage securities would also likely be downgraded.

Now... these downgrades and hedge-fund liquidations have hugely important consequences. Why? Because as hedge funds have to liquidate, they must sell their RMBSs, CDOs, and ABSs. This pushes prices for these securities down, which results in margin calls on other hedge funds that own the same troubled instruments. That, in turn, pushes them to sell, too.

Very quickly the "liquidity" – the amount of willing buyers for these types of mortgage-backed securities – disappeared. There are literally no bids for much of this paper. That's why the subprime mortgage brokers – the Novastars and Fremonts – went out of business so quickly. Not only did they take a huge hit paying off the early defaults of their 2005 and 2006 mortgages, but the loans they held on their books were marked down, with no buyers available.

The failure of the subprime-mortgage structure – which started with higher-than-expected defaults, led to hedge-fund wipeouts, and then continued with mortgage broker bankruptcies – might have been contained to only the subprime segment of the market. That's why we jumped in during late spring and recommended the higher-quality mortgage firms, such as Thornburg and American Home. We believed that the higher quality of these firms' underwriting would prevent a similar run on the bank.

But... the risk spread because of the financial engineering.

With Wall Street wrapping together thousands of mortgages from different underwriters, it's likely that hundreds of financial institutions around the world have traces of bad subprime and Alt-A mortgage debt on their books. Parts of these CDOs were rated AAA. Almost any financial institution could own them – especially hedge funds. Hedge fund investors quickly figured this out – and asked for their money back.

And so, in July, liquidity fears began to creep through the entire mortgage complex. Not because the mortgages themselves were all bad or even because the mortgage securities were all bad – but because all the market players knew a wave of selling, led by hedge funds, was on the way. Nobody wants to be the first buyer when they know thousands of sellers are lined up behind them.

The market "locked up." Nobody would buy mortgage bonds. And everyone needed to sell. Suddenly even Wall Street's biggest banks – the very firms that created these mortgage securities – were suffering huge losses, as the bonds kept getting marked down and hedge funds and other leveraged speculators had to sell into a panicked market. In this liquidation, even solid firms, like American Home and Thornburg, were trapped owning new mortgages they couldn't sell to Wall Street. Meanwhile their banks, worried about the collapsing prices of mortgages, demanded greater collateral.

It's a classic "run on the bank," except today the function of the traditional bank has been spread out among several institutions: mortgage brokers, Wall Street security firms, hedge-fund investors, and banks. The real problem is that the long-dated liabilities (a 30-year mortgage) were matched not by reliable depositors, but by fly-by-night hedge funds, which were themselves highly leveraged and subject to redemptions.

That's why even as the top executives in these firms believed their mortgages were safe and sound, they can't get the funding they need to hold onto them through the crisis. As Keynes predicted, the life of every higher-leveraged financial institution is precarious: "The market can be irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
The hedge funds have no solution. Redemptions will force them to sell. They'll continue to pressure the market, resulting in huge losses. Hundreds of funds will likely be liquidated.

Wall Street's investment firms, if they can find additional capital to meet margin calls, might weather the storm... depending on how far it spreads. We saw a move in this direction yesterday when Goldman announced $3 billion in additional funding for its big hedge funds.

For most mortgage brokers, the party is over – goodnight. Something like 90% of them will be out of business by the end of the year.

The only chance they have to survive is very conservative underwriting (which might result in a premium for their mortgage securities) and lots of additional funding. Delta Financial, for example, is renowned for its very conservative underwriting, which requires a substantial (20%) down payment. The company raised $70 million last week from two investors (one of which is our friend, Mohnish Pabrai) to hang on to its $5.6 billion in on-balance-sheet mortgages. The stock is up 14.5% on the news today. Will it be enough capital? It's very hard to say. It depends on whether or not the company is able to sell some of its mortgages to raise cash. It depends on whether or not it is downgraded further and the firm receives additional margin calls.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Thornburg take a similar step – raising funds from existing shareholders. But, for now, Wall Street remains very skeptical the firm will survive. Its shares are down another 46% today.

As analysts, what we got wrong was how far the crisis would spread. We thought by buying the most respected firms with the best underwriting, we could avoid the subprime train wreck. What we didn't know was how far the subprime sludge had been spread via mortgage securities. The insiders at these firms made the same mistake. They assumed by operating conservatively their businesses would retain a premium price on their mortgage and better access to capital. But in a panic, the baby is often thrown out with the bathwater.

And... we have to consider one more thing. Nobody knows right now how far the crisis will spread. It could certainly get worse. As these mortgage bonds are downgraded, the financial institutions that own them must raise more cash in order to meet liquidity regulations. To hold AAA-rated paper, banks, and other financial institutions need only to maintain $0.56 in capital for each $100 of paper. But as the paper is downgraded, the amount of capital they're required to hold goes up, exponentially. At a BBB rating, financial institutions must hold $4.80 of capital. At BBB-, they must hold $8 of capital per $100 of asset-backed securities. Thus, as the crisis worsens, the demand for capital from these firms could grow substantially.

We can't know what will happen. And, as we can't know, we must stand aside when our trailing stop losses are hit. As I wrote, back in early July, about American Home Mortgage:

Speculation on Wall Street is that "Alt-A" debt will be downgraded next. Most of the loans held by American Home Mortgage are considered "Alt-A" because they have adjustable rates. Even with the high credit scores of the company's borrowers, if rating agencies downgrade the bonds it holds, the company's solvency will certainly come into doubt. Whether this happens or not is a moot point for us: Our speculation hasn't panned out. We should have realized it sooner... but in a few more weeks we might be very glad we got out while we could.

Last edited by zackart : 12-25-2007 at 08:13 AM.

CFC News

2008-01-11T15:41:00.000+08:00

There WAS a news about CFC rally.

AP
Feds Seem to Favor Countrywide Buyout
Friday January 11, 2:17 am ET
By Alan Zibel, AP Business Writer

Bank of America Bid for Countrywide Likely Would Get Approval From Government, Analysts Say

NOW..............I was just 20 minutes away from the news last nite............Ohhhh mannnnn....guess i better stay after 2.30pm or 3.30am........Grrrrrrrrrrrrr.....

The image is from Yahoo.com

RSI & Stock Rhythm

2008-01-11T05:28:00.000+08:00

Tonight, I traded CFC again 2 times. First Long..........then.........Short. How I wished I hold it much longer.....but as always...I can't see the future. Anyway, both trades were in profit. Then later, i traded RT, though I got in late, Alhamdullilah, I managed to get a little profit.

I find reading the CS and the RSI are important tools. TA is very important. News will give the overall picture. But some stocks they also have "individual" rhythm especially if they have individual situation. Eg. RT. When most stocks went up.........it just went to the south.

I just chat with Hariz. The trader had a loss, however, can recovered back the equity. December was a bad month he said...up 21% only. So, I told him...that's trading. He also reminded members' not to put food,rent..etc money...as in trading nothing is guaranteed. Luckily the trader is an experienced trader. Hariz himself also trades. He sent his statement. Here I just put the partial statement. But, don't get it wrong.....he does not intend to trade for others. He has many things to do and he wont be able to focus on trading.

Time is 5.42am............I feel like I am "floating"..............major sleepy.

I think i just pen down here.

May today be better than yesterday and tomorrow better than today..........Amin.

Live Trading

2008-01-10T05:51:00.000+08:00

Short CFC, DIS, AAI.

CFC - Good trade (2X)

DIS - 1 Good trade , 2nd Good trade.............3rd Killer trade DIS support 29.20!!!!

AAI - Though was downgraded ..........but not a good down.

All in all.................BREAK EVEN !

Not good at all. Tomorrow to be careful.

Not feeling well

2008-01-08T10:08:00.000+08:00

Not feeling well since yesterday..........fever, flu and coughing.

Happy New Year 2008

2007-12-30T13:29:00.000+08:00

Today, just relaxing and reading at home. Out for breakfast and bought some candies for my nieces and nephews in K. Will be there from 31-5th January. Can't wait to meet my relatives...it has been quite some time.....if I am lucky I will meet Hariz there. I already told him my arrival. My son is going to be thrilled. :) Another thing I hope I can close one deal tomorrow nite. The meeting is about a project in T which requires a financier. They met the financier like 2 weeks ago and the chances are 50/50. If tomorrow meeting is good, there is a good chance that the project will take off. May God bless my trip and my intentions,amin.

Till then...Happy Hunting.........and HAPPY NEW YEAR..2008.

When It Rains.....It Pours

2007-12-29T13:43:00.000+08:00

Yesterday, I had "a testing" day. First during the mid day, I lost my ATM card....and I had to rush renewing it in the middle of the busy city. After that, I rushed to my son's school to get him all the necessary things for him as school is going to start next week. Then rushed to another bank, however, I forgot to bring my passbook, so I went home to get it and when I reached there the bank just closed.....as I forgot on Friday, banks closed half an hour earlier.

At nite, around 12.50 am, after I paid my parking fee, I realized my car not able to move as usual. When I checked, the front-left tyre punctured. Long story short, I managed to call my dad and my brother to help me changed the tyre. (Note: THANK YOU!) When I tried to get out from the building area, the chip no longer usable to let me go....so I had to go again at the pay station, however, I did not have small change! Everything is closed! Luckily the guards also helped me and asking around, one guy just gave his money....(Thank You!)...and finally I am able to go home.

I did online last nite, but I was too tired.........my fingers just refused to type. :)

I went to sleep around 4.30am.

p/s BTW, I found out RSI indicator is very useful ......especially when it goes under 50. I think it is useful even though you are a news trader.

Markets and The Late Benazir Bhutto

2007-12-28T01:32:00.000+08:00

Ah! What a nite! I just got back from work. Sleepy indeed. Earlier in the evening, I think before the market opens, read the news about the late Benazir, May her soul rest in peace! Amin... After that, I got a call, asking if i already got the news or not. Then an hour later, I got a text message, about the same thing...........Wow! No wonder the news moved the market down! Plus oil and gold price rose, and weak increase (meaning not as expected) in durable goods. Lots of reports screamed the big "R" is coming for a visit. I hope we are prepared.

Introduction

2007-12-27T16:32:00.000+08:00

This is my first time blogging experience. The purpose is to journalized my experience in riding the financial waves. I live in the GMT+8 region.

Recently, I just got a contract as Nite Stock Trader. I only have a brief trading experienced before.Stock trading and Commodities (Coffee). Last two weeks, I had my training and God willing, I am going to "swim" early January 2008. I hope I can journalized my trading and the private opportunities that I dived into.

As for private opportunities or famously known as HYIPs, previous few years, I have dived quite a few lots. Being new and thinking most people are good and kind-hearted. Boy, was I surprised! Names? Well, so many of them.

I have not dived in for quite some time now, my last was in 2005. However, I just watch from the beach as an observer, waiting and searching for the "right" place to dive in. Some managed to fish, maybe some already find an island and keep it private and most came back wounded......eaten by merciless sharks.

Now, I am into 1 opportunity. Yes, I dived in for the first time after 2 years. :) Like the famous saying, the winners never quits ! But, I doubt that kind of motivation talks can be applied to HYIPs. Those who tasted the "salt" know.

Till then............Happy Searching! :)